Recent rainfalls resulted in prevented wheat plantings in 150,000
hectares in Buenos Aires and 35,000 hectares in La Pampa. To this, we
must add total losses in another 100,000 hectares that had already been
planted with the cereal. However, wheat plantings and condition could
be boosted in southeast Cordoba given the added moisture.
Given these changes, the national wheat area falls to 5.4 million hectares,
and yields should be similar to those of last year.
Corn is heading towards a crucial marketing year. 6.2 million hectares
could be planted in this new cycle, almost 6 points above 2017/18. However,
after recent rains, the risk of sowing has increased. Waterlogging issues
are massive in Buenos Aires, making fieldwork difficult and windows for
planting very tight. The behavior of rains in September and the evolution
of export prices could alter plating intentions.
Forecasts project that rains will not be as favorable to crops as last
year, given abundant water reserves. An optimist productive scenario would
result in yields similar to those of last year (7.9 tons per hectare), and
total production around 41 million tons.
Planting intentions for 2017/18 soybeans are estimated around 18.8 million
hectares, with production expected to stand around 54.5 million tons.