In the span of one minute, CBOT soybean futures fell USD 11 per ton after USDA added 3.3 million tons to its US production estimates for the 2017/18 marketing year. CONAB also estimates Brazilian production to be about 7 million tons above USDA figures.

On August 10, USDA increased expected soybean yields by 94.2 kilos per hectares for the 2017/18 MY, which would result in total production above 119.2 million tons. USDA also increased demand figures for the current campaign by a net 1.08 million tons given a significant rise in exports and slightly smaller crushing demand.

This fall in initial stocks for the 2017/18 is more than compensated by the larger production, and as a result, total supply would be around 2.23 million tons larger than what was estimated in the previous report.

 

US soybean exports for the 2017/18 MY were increased by 2 million tons in order to reach a new record of 60.55 million tons. Global production estimates were increased by 2 million tons; whereas ending stocks were raised 3 million tons give the expected fall in crushing demand.

As a result of the drop in CBOT soybean futures prices, local market activity was scarce past thursday. Early cash bids for soybeans started around ARS 4,400 per ton, but fell to ARS 4,150 per ton once the bearish report was released. Sellers expected prices to rebound in the following days due to the drought hitting Midwest crops.