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 News

02/05/2017 0:00 - Agricultural Commodities Market
FEDERICO DI YENNO
Soybean 2015/16 marketing year left $ 453,000 less in exports than 2014/15
 
If we take into account the dynamics of the last soybean-marketing year (so called campaigns in Argentina), the export effort of the soybean complex does not compensate for the drop in international prices in recent ye$. Despite having increased shipments of the bean and its byproducts in the 2014/15 MY and maintaining a slightly lower level in the 2015/16 MY, measured values in doll$ did not surpass the level of the 2013/14 MY. Soybean exports include exports of soybeans along with their main by-products (soybean meal and pellets by solvent extraction, soybean oil and biodiesel). The last marketing year, soybean shipment packing was offset by higher cereal shipments, mainly explained by a change in relative prices due to changes in export duties at the beginning of 2016 and changes in the restrictions on Export quotas.
 
https://www.bcr.com.ar/eng/Images1/News/20170502_SoyExpo1.png
 
Taking the exports data from INDEC for soybean and its main byproducts, the 2015/16 campaign leaves an export balance of 18.645 million US$. The 2014/15 campaign totaled 19,098 million US$, so this campaign left 453,000 US$ less.
 
The main differences in values in US$ of the 2015/16 and 2014/15 campaigns are:
  1. Much of the drop is due to lower shipments of soybeans, recording a drop of US$ 1,011 million less. The average price of soybeans for the 2015/16 season was slightly lower than the FOB average price of the previous season (US$ 360 per MT vs. US$ 366 per MT).
  2. FOB value in US$ of meal increased by US$ 131 million. This was supported by a slightly higher average price for flour (US$ 352 per MT vs. US$ 342 per MT)
  3. The FOB value of US$ exports of biodiesel increased by 689 million US$. The FOB price of Biodiesel increased in the same way as shipments (778 US$ per MT vs 649 last season).
  4. While the value of oil exports decreased by US$ 262 million (The price paid was US$ 735 / tn vs. 669, practically the same result as price for the biodiesel).
An important issue to highlight is that these export data are grouped by date according to the commercial year for the soybean and its by-products. Therefore, the strong shipments that took place in January, February and March of 2016 are part of the 2014/15 campaign, where, if an analysis is made in annual terms, the data show different summaries mainly for the meal and the soybean oil exports.
 
This campaign we must talk about the "temporary imports" of soybeans (in the custom code this are goods that can remain for a purpose and for a specified period within the customs territory, and are subject to the obligation to be re-export for consumption). We can observe increasing imports of soybeans in recent months (soybeans imported from Bolivia, Brazil and Uruguay are mainly imported from Paraguay). This is because the plants can maintain a certain level of supply so they can improve the productive efficiency and resolve the lack of input problem in the periods of low stocks at local level. Also from the industry have mentioned basics of protein requirement in the soybean so that the soybean meal can reach the standard of 46.5 "High Pro Meal" that characterize the shipments from our country.
 
https://www.bcr.com.ar/eng/Images1/News/20170502_SoyExpo2.png
 
Making a comparative analysis of the 2014/15 and 2015/16 campaigns in quantities we can say that the total export volume drop a lot. This is explained for:
  • 2,625 MT drop in shipments of soybeans.
  • 493,000 MT drop in shipments of soybean meal (solvent extraction soybean meal).
  • 925,000 MT drop in shipments of soybean oil.
  • A 925,000 MT strong rebound in shipments of
  • Biodiesel (mainly to the US), compensated a little the big drop in the other by-products.
https://www.bcr.com.ar/eng/Images1/News/20170502_SoyExpo3.png
 
The minor export volume in the last campaign should be seen in a global context. There were changes in the relative prices of the crops that generated favorable conditions to more intensive farming, seeding two crops instead of one per year. Also, this better prices encourage crop rotation. All of these new conditions have external benefits like the maintenance of soil nutrients and the absorption of water throughout the year. Adding a second crop to these lands and improving the margins for livestock producers would improve water absorption rates, which along with the corresponding infrastructure would help the prevention of flooding in several áreas.

 
 

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